Historical differences appear between weekday and time groups on Pendik → Yalova, but this table does not identify a “safest day” or guarantee a future sailing. We keep the direction, source vessel type and three complete years fixed, then standardize the month distribution.
How were the question and sample defined?
Question: in 2023–2025, how does the reported cancellation share for Pendik → Yalova, source type “Hızlı Arabalı Vapur” (fast car ferry), vary by weekday and six-hour departure group? This direction was selected for its substantial, daily coverage, not by scanning routes for a low cancellation rate. The reverse direction, other vessel types and other routes are outside this sample.
There are 11,228 records over 1,096 observed dates, including 421 cancellations (3.7%) and no status conflicts. Weekday and time use the source date and departure-time fields, not timestamps embedded in IDs.
Weekdays
| Group | Cancelled / records | Raw share | Month-standardized share | Observed days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 67 / 1,589 | 4.2% | 4.4% | 157 |
| Tuesday | 79 / 1,576 | 5.0% | 5.1% | 157 |
| Wednesday | 58 / 1,561 | 3.7% | 3.8% | 157 |
| Thursday | 65 / 1,570 | 4.1% | 4.3% | 156 |
| Friday | 49 / 1,708 | 2.9% | 2.7% | 156 |
| Saturday | 48 / 1,659 | 2.9% | 2.5% | 156 |
| Sunday | 55 / 1,565 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 157 |
Departure-time groups
| Group | Cancelled / records | Raw share | Month-standardized share | Observed days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06–11:59 | 168 / 3,681 | 4.6% | 4.4% | 1,095 |
| 12–17:59 | 136 / 4,335 | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1,096 |
| 18–23:59 | 117 / 3,207 | 3.6% | 3.9% | 1,096 |
The 00:00–05:59 group has only five records on five dates, with no cancellations. Its small sample and absence in some months exclude it from the standardized comparison. Zero observed cancellations does not make those hours risk-free. The time table contains 11,223 records; the weekday table contains 11,228.
What does month standardization do?
Each year-month is a separate stratum, giving 36 strata. We retain months with records in every group being compared; all 36 qualify here. First calculate each group’s cancelled/record share within each month. Then give every group the same weights: that month’s total comparison records divided by the total across the 36 months. This reduces differences caused by one group having more summer observations.
This does not match actual same-day weather, individual vessels, maintenance, holidays or exact departure slots. The weekday and time tables are not additionally adjusted for one another. Long interruptions remain, and records from the same date are not independent trials. We therefore claim neither a causal effect, statistical significance nor a future cancellation probability.
How should this inform a journey?
The table demonstrates a limited comparison the archive can support. Do not choose a ticket solely from historical group averages: the official status of your sailing, current marine forecast and connection flexibility are more direct information. A holiday comparison needs verified dates for every year and appropriate matched periods; this analysis does not manufacture a holiday effect.
Pendik–Yalova route guide · Monthly comparison across the archive
Sources, method and checking a sailing today
Cancellation counts use the primary status “İptal Edildi”. The cancellation-share denominator is every record in the stated group; status conflicts are disclosed separately. Missing dates do not create invented sailings. Sales tables use the separately defined eligible completed records.
Full archive methodology · Sources and attribution · Official IDO information
These are record-based summaries, not totals of physical sailings, unique passengers or weather-caused cancellations. We do not publish raw CSV/JSON files or record-level data. Verify today’s journey separately by date, direction and time.
Sources and data
İDO: official sailing and ticket information · MGM: Marmara marine forecast
Cite this page
When using this analysis, please credit Sefer İptal and link to this page. İDO supplies the sailing records; Sefer İptal prepares the explanations and calculations on this page.
Sefer İptal. Pendik–Yalova cancellations by weekday and departure time. 2026-09-17. https://seferiptal.com/en/guides/pendik-yalova-weekday-departure-time/